Eurozone expectation soars in ZEW survey
German investor confidence jumped in September as the outlook for the eurozone improved and the threat of crises such as a hard landing for the Chinese economy and a eurozone crash receded, according to the ZEW Centre for European Economic Research.
The ZEW indicator for economic sentiment in Germany has risen 7.6 points to 49.6, gaining for a second straight month as optimism for the eurozone as a whole rebounds from earlier lows. The indicator is now more than double the historic average of 23.8 points. The ZEW indicator for the eurozone has soared 14.6 points to 58.6.
‘The financial market experts hold the view that the German economy is still gaining momentum,’ says Dr Clemens Fuest, president of the ZEW. ‘In particular, the experts’ economic optimism has increased due to the improved economic outlook for the eurozone – although recently released economic data for Germany has fallen short of expectations.’
The ZEW, which measures experts’ current economic assessment and six-month outlook through a monthly survey of analysts, also says Germany’s current economic state has risen 12.3 points in September to 30.6 as fears of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis have faded and signs the US economy is improving have helped the European outlook.
The economic sentiment in all countries measured by the ZEW has increased in September, with the outlook for the UK rising the fastest, by 13.3 points to 41.6. The six-month outlook for the US, which has led gains in recent months, has increased at the slowest pace, rising 3.7 points to 56.3.
Accordingly, analysts’ expectations for the UK’s FTSE 100 have risen the most, increasing 4.5 to 36 points, followed by expectations for France’s CAC 40 and Japan’s Nikkei 250, which have both climbed 2.2 points. Expectations for the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the US have dropped the most, falling 2.3 points to 48.
The main ZEW indicator is based on a survey of 260 analysts taken between September 2 and 16. The numbers represent the difference between the percentage of analysts with positive outlooks and those with negative outlooks.
