Fourth straight month of gains amid improved sentiment for Europe
German investor confidence has risen to its highest level in more than four years amid expectations of European economic recovery.
The ZEW indicator for economic sentiment in Germany has risen 1.8 points in November to 54.6, the highest since October 2009, the ZEW Centre for European Economic Research says in a press release. That’s more than double the historic average of 24.6 points and marks a fourth straight month of rising confidence.
‘Economic expectations for Germany have been hovering at a high level for months,’ says Dr Clemens Fuest, ZEW president, in the release. ‘The slightly improved economic outlook for the eurozone might have contributed to this development.’
The ZEW indicator, which measures expectations for the next six months, has risen steadily amid positive macroeconomic data from Europe and increasing hope among investors that the US Federal Reserve will continue its program of quantitative easing at least into the first quarter of next year.
The six-month outlook indicator for Italy leads the general increase in optimism, rising 5.5 points in November to 32.8. The US is next, increasing 2.7 to 49.2 points, followed by Germany. Expectations for the UK have risen 1.6 points to 37.6. Overall, eurozone confidence has increased by 1.1 points to 60.2. Lower confidence levels have affected France, which has fallen 2.6 points to 22.7, and Japan, which has dropped 0.5 to 40.6 points.
The assessment of the current economic situation in the UK has shot up 13.9 points in November to a still-negative 12.7, while the US assessment has risen 9.6 points, climbing out of negative territory to 8.4 points. The assessment of the current situation in Germany, however, has dropped 1 point to 28.7. The eurozone has fallen 0.7 to negative 61.6. France suffers the sharpest drop, falling 1.7 points to minus 78.
The ZEW numbers are based on a survey of 265 analysts taken between November 4 and November 18. The numbers represent the difference between the percentage of analysts with positive outlooks and those with negative outlooks.
