Outlook for 2014 improves on European, US investor optimism
German investor confidence has risen to its highest in more than seven years as investors expect a banner year in 2014.
The ZEW indicator for economic expectations in Germany has increased by 7.4 points this month to 62, the highest since April 2006. The result indicates a full recovery in optimism since the financial crash of 2008 and 2009, as well as high investor expectations for 2014.
‘With respect to the year 2014, the surveyed financial market experts are quite optimistic,’ says Dr Clemens Fuest, president of ZEW, in a press release. The ZEW indicator, which measures expectations for the next six months, has risen every month since July.
Optimism over economic recovery in Europe, which has been the major uncertainty in global economic performance in the last few years, plus positive employment data and other numbers from the US have contributed to a worldwide increase in investor optimism in recent months.
The six-month outlook for the eurozone as a whole has risen 8.1 points to 68.3 in December, reflecting the sharply positive outlook. The US leads the global increase, with a gain of 16.2 points to 65.4. Germany is in second place while the UK comes third, with a gain of 6.3 points to 43.9. France saw a drop of 2.8 points – the largest in the sample – to 19.9, followed by Japan, which has fallen 2.3 to 38.3 points.
The assessment of the current economic situation in Germany has risen 3.7 points to 32.4 while the assessment of the eurozone economy has jumped 7.2 points to minus 54.4. The UK leads the overall increase in current economic sentiment with an increase of 10.2 points to minus 2.5.
The ZEW numbers are based on a survey of 252 analysts taken between December 2 and December 12. The numbers represent the difference between the percentage of analysts with positive outlooks and those with negative outlooks.
