ZEW survey finds ‘moderate optimism’ for 12-month outlook on jobs growth and trade
Investor optimism over China’s near-term economic outlook was little changed in July although expectations for exports and other specific indicators improved, according to the ZEW China Economic Panel (CEP).
The 12-month outlook for China’s economy, the world’s second largest, declined 2.3 points to 19.1 in July after gaining 16.7 points in June, ZEW’s monthly economic survey on China concludes. Expectations for the country’s investment banking sector rose 12.2 points to 48.2, while expectations for energy sector performance over the next year dropped 7.8 points to 36.
‘The indicator continues to reflect moderate optimism,’ ZEW says in a statement. ‘The current survey also reveals increasing optimism about exports and employment in China. Against the background of strong improvements in economic expectations last month, these are further indications that China’s economy is to grow faster than earlier this year.’
The 12-month outlook for employment in China increased 13.3 points to 10, entering positive territory, while the export outlook rose 12.6 points to 41.7, ZEW says.
The assessment of China’s current economic situation dropped 10.9 points but remained in positive territory at 3 points, ZEW says. By comparison, the assessment of the current state of the eurozone economy fell 3 points to negative 3, while the evaluation of the US economy dropped 2.8 points to 37.9.
‘Similar to previous months, economic expectations continue to be markedly more positive than analysts’ evaluations of the current business cycle,’ ZEW says.
China’s retail sector came second in terms of the 12-month performance outlook, rising 10.4 points to 50, followed by the automotive sector, which saw an increase of 10.3 points to 52. The outlook for the construction sector fell 6.3 points to 2, the lowest outlook of all sectors, while the services sector saw a decline of 2.4 points to 53.9. Overall, the IT sector had the most positive outlook, at 62 points.
